Agricultural Economy and ML Models

Vuppalapati, Chandrasekar

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77485-1_3

Chandrasekar Vuppalapati⁵

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 314))

790 Accesses

Abstract

The chapter starts with the introduction of global agriculture landscape and farm size economy across the world. Next, it introduces agricultural economics and influence of macrolevel economic indicators on the local agriculture. Next, study of econometrics-related agricultural models is introduced. Finally, it concludes with the challenges that agriculture faces, especially for small-scale farmers and the role of machine learning in addressing such challenges, as well as the opportunities machine learning provides to improve the future of small-scale farming.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution

Chapter: USD 29.95; Price excludes VAT (USA)

eBook: USD 139.00; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Softcover Book: USD 179.99; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Hardcover Book: USD 179.99; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

1.
How Agriculture and Domestication Began – https://www.britannica.com/topic/agriculture/How-agriculture-and-domestication-began
2.
Where Did Agriculture Begin? Oh Boy, It’s Complicated – https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/07/15/485722228/where-did-agriculture-begin-oh-boy-its-complicated#:~:text=Sometime%20around%2012%2C000%20years%20ago,like%20goats%20and%20wild%20oxen.
3.
The Development of Agriculture – https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/development-agriculture/
4.
Agriculture and Food Industries – https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview
5.
Largest Agricultural Output – https://worldinfigures.com/rankings/index/103
6.
Ag and Food Sector and the Economy – https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/
7.
What is agriculture’s share of the overall US economy? – https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58270
8.
Agriculture, Forestry, and fishery statistics – 2018 – https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/9455154/KS-FK-18-001-EN-N.pdf/a9ddd7db-c40c-48c9-8ed5-a8a90f4faa3f
9.
Statistical Evaluation of agricultural development in Asian countries – http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/icas/papers/P020071017429375003907.pdf
10.
Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and the Pacific – https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27531/building-climate-resilience-agriculture-sector.pdf
11.
Agricultural Ordinances 2020 – https://www.prsindia.org/sites/default/files/bill_files/Legislative%20Brief%20-%20Agriculture%20Ordinances%2C%202020.pdf
12.
Parikh, Ashok, 1982. “An econometric model of the agricultural sector of the Indian economy” – https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(82)90027-8
13.
Africa – Agriculture – https://www.britannica.com/place/Africa/Agriculture
14.
Arable Land – https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/arable-land
15.
Agriculture in Africa 2019: Special Report – https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/blog/souhir-mzali/focus-reports/agriculture-africa-2019-special-report
16.
Agriculture in Africa 2019 – https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/sites/default/files/blog/specialreports/949525/africa_2019_special_report.pdf
17.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018–2027 – http://www.fao.org/3/i9166en/I9166EN.PDF
18.
LATIN AMERICAN AGRICULTURE: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES – http://www.fao.org/3/CA4076EN/CA4076EN_Chapter2_Latin_American_Agriculture.pdf
19.
Who Are the Poor in the Developing World – http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/187011475416542282/pdf/WPS7844.pdf
20.
The World-fact Book – https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/214.html
21.
Most economically dependent on agriculture – https://worldinfigures.com/rankings/index/104
22.
Least economically dependent on agriculture – https://worldinfigures.com/rankings/index/105
23.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York – https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast/methodology.html
24.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for,11.0%20percent%20on%20December%2016
25.
Small Farmers Make Big Contributions: Dairy Production in India – https://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=23184
26.
Strategies for the Bottom of the Pyramid: Creating Sustainable Development – http://pdf.wri.org/2001summit_hartarticle.pdf
27.
Economies of size in U.S. Field crop Faming – https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/CAT87202149/PDF
28.
Family Farms – https://texasfarmbureau.org/percent-of-us-farms-are-familyowned/
29.
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
30.
Small and large farms in the EU – statistics from the farm structure survey – https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/54736.pdf
31.
China’s Acreage Gap – https://aei.ag/2018/10/01/chinas-acreage-gap/
32.
SmartHerd management: A microservices-based fog computing–assisted IoT platform towards data-driven smart dairy farming – https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/spe.2704
33.
Machine Learning in Agriculture: A Review – https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/18/8/2674/pdf
34.
GDP as a measure of an economic well-being – https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WP43-8.23.18.pdf
35.
Farmers’ suicide : Across culture – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2802368/
36.
Agricultural Economics – https://www.uky.edu/academics/bachelors/agricultural-economics
37.
Strengthening agribusiness linkages with small-scale farmers – http://www.fao.org/3/y6001e/y6001e00.htm#Contents
38.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS – http://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C02/E6-154-12-00.pdf
39.
Macroeconomics 12th Edition by Robert Gordon, ISBN-13: 978-0138014919, Pearson; 12th edition (April 8, 2011)
40.
GDP Now: A Model for GDP “Nowcasting” – https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2014/wp1407.pdf
41.
Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts – https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-12/All-Chapters.pdf
42.
Now Casting Report – https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast/methodology.html
43.
GDP Now – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=The%20GDPNow%20model%20estimate%20for,11.0%20percent%20on%20December%2016.
44.
Nowcasting New Zealand GDP Using Machine Learning Algorithms – https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2018-09/47_2018_richardson_mulder_vehbi.pdf
45.
Predicting surprises to GDP : a comparison of econometric and machine learning techniques – https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/109649/987002546-MIT.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
46.
Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Cycles in U.S – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7242465/#MOESM1
47.
Understand the time series components using “Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess” – https://appsource.microsoft.com/en-us/product/power-bi-visuals/wa104380897?tab=overview
48.
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT
49.
Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Manufacturing (AWHMAN) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHMAN
50.
4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) (CC4WSA) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CC4WSA
51.
ISM New Orders – https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ism_manufacturing_new_orders_index
52.
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits – in Structures with 5 Units – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT5
53.
Leading Index for the United States (USSLIND) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND
54.
AWHMAN – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHMAN
55.
The Complete Guide to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting – https://towardsdatascience.com/the-complete-guide-to-time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-70d476bfe775
56.
Introduction to Time Series Analysis – https://itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc4.htm
57.
How to Check if Time Series Data is Stationary with Python – https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-data-stationary-python/
58.
scipy.stats.wasserstein_distance – https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.stats.wasserstein_distance.html
59.
scipy.special.kl_div – https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.special.kl_div.html?highlight=kullback%20leibler%20divergence
60.
The relationship between crude oil prices and export prices of major agricultural commodities – https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-8/the-relationship-between-crude-oil-and-export-prices-of-major-agricultural-commodities.htm?view_full
61.
Soybean Export Price Index – https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/EIUIQ00100
62.
Corn export – https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/WPS012202
63.
Wheat export – https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/EIUIQ00000
64.
Crude oil imports – https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/EIUIR10000
65.
MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, COMMODITY MARKETS: A LONGER TERM OUTLOOK – http://www.fao.org/3/a-ak967e.pdf
66.
The interactions between agricultural commodity and oil prices: an empirical analysis – https://www.agriculturejournals.cz/publicFiles/162049.pdf
67.
Farm bills: Are India’s new reforms a ‘death warrant‘for farmers? – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54233080
68.
EU Milk and Dairy Productions – https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/milk-and-dairy-products_en
69.
Agricultural Policy of the United States – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_policy_of_the_United_States
70.
The 2018 Farm Bill (P.L. 115–334): Summary and Side-by-Side Comparison – https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45525
71.
Brazil sets new minimum prices – http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/food-policies/detail/en/c/1185343/
72.
China Announces 2020 Wheat Minimum support Prices at 2019 Level – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=China%20Announces%202020%20Wheat%20Minimum%20Support%20Price%20at%202019%20Level_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_12-03-2019
73.
Sup. – https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9e2cf2f4-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/9e2cf2f4-en
74.
‘If open markets were so benevolent, farmers in US or Europe- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/78328364.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
75.
US Farm Bankruptcies Reach Eight-Year High – https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/02/10/us-farm-bankruptcies-reach-eight-year-high-infographic/?sh=77b2189f7de0
76.
There Is Turmoil in Agriculture. Here’s What Investors Need to Know. – https://www.barrons.com/articles/agriculture-farmers-investors-china-trade-latin-america-brazil-argentina-tyson-corteva-fmc-wasde-report-51566336014
77.
As small US farms face crisis, Trump’s trade aid flowed to corporations – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/as-small-us-farms-face-crisis-trumps-trade-aid-flowed-to-corporations.html
78.
More Farmers Declare Bankruptcy Despite Record Levels of Federal Aid – https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-farmers-declare-bankruptcy-despite-record-levels-of-federal-aid-11596706201
79.
Improvements to Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods and Novel Features – https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1055&context=datasciencereview
80.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States – https://www.bea.gov/
81.
The Census Bureau – https://www.census.gov/
82.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics – https://www.bls.gov/
83.
The USDA – https://www.usda.gov/
84.
FRED – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
85.
The World Bank – https://data.worldbank.org/
86.
FAO- http://www.fao.org/home/en/
87.
S&P 500 Index – https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
88.
IMF GDP Data – https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
89.
IMF Dataset – https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO
90.
CPI – https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
91.
OECD Net Export Data – International trade – Trade in goods and services forecast – OECD Data
92.
BLS Beta Labs – https://beta.bls.gov/dataQuery/find?st=0&r=20&more=0&q=export+corn
93.
Global Development Bank – Macroeconomy – http://www.fao.org/3/i2490e/i2490e01c.pdf
94.
The Components of GDP – https://www.thebalance.com/components-of-gdp-explanation-formula-and-chart-3306015#:~:text=1.-,Personal%20Consumption%20Expenditures,figures%20reported%20are%20real%20GDP
95.
Improvement to Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods and Novel Features- https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1055&context=datasciencereview
96.
GDP Tracking Model And Forecasts: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx?la=en
97.
GDP NOW XLSX – https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx?la=en
98.
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAFS
99.
US Retail Sales Fell 0.7% in December as Covid-19 Cases Rose – https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-december-retail-sales-coronavirus-recovery-11610676272
100.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal consumption expenditures: New motor vehicles (chain-type price index) [AB67RG3Q086SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AB67RG3Q086SBEA, December 23, 2020.
101.
Auto Sales and the 2007–09 Recession – https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/07/05/auto-sales-and-the-2007-09-recession
102.
Personal consumption expenditures: New motor vehicles (chain-type price index) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AB67RG3Q086SBEA
103.
Current Quarter GDP Tracking – https://macroblog.typepad.com/files/111020CurrentQuarterGDPTrackingDescription.pdf
104.
Why Did Car Sales Drop So Dramatically During the Financial Crisis? – https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/was-the-government-bailout-of-car-financers-necessary
105.
What the Coronavirus means for car sales – https://datiuminsights.com.au/what-the-coronavirus-means-for-car-sales/
106.
Personal consumption expenditures: Net purchases of used autos – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A137RC1Q027SBEA
107.
Personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption/Gross Domestic Product – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=79tc
108.
Personal consumption expenditures: Services: Purchased meals and beverages – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPMBRC1A027NBEA
109.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food price indexes and data collection – https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-food-price-indexes-and-data-collection.htm
110.
Predicting surprises to GDP: a comparison of econometric and machine learning techniques – https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/109649
111.
Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks – https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp99-3.pdf
112.
Forecasting Inflation and GDP Growth: Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs) – https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29861/tn-18-forecasting-inflation-gdp-growth.pdf
113.
Predicting real GDP Growth – https://towardsdatascience.com/predicting-real-gdp-growth-85f34fdca97a
114.
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims (IC4WSA) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA
115.
Productivity and Costs: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf
116.
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods (DGORDER) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER
117.
S&P Index – https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC
118.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF
119.
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT
120.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
121.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
122.
Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
123.
Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income (MDSP) – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP
124.
Macroeconomics and agriculture – https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/macroeconomics-agriculture/#:~:text=Key%20factors%20linking%20agriculture%20to,interest%20rates%2C%20and%20energy%20costs.&text = ERS%20provides%20a%20range%20of,relating%20to%20macroeconomics%20and%20agriculture.
125.
Macroeconomy – http://www.fao.org/3/i2490e/i2490e01c.pdf
126.
Coincident Economic Activity Index for the United States – https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPHCI
127.
On America’s Farms, Worries About Regulation, Hope for Trade Deals Under Biden – https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-americas-farms-worries-about-regulation-hope-for-trade-deals-under-biden-11604917800?page=1
128.
Agriculture Ordinance 2020 – https://www.prsindia.org/sites/default/files/bill_files/Legislative%20Brief%20-%20Agriculture%20Ordinances%2C%202020.pdf
129.
They’re Trying to Wipe Us Off the Map.’ Small American Farmers Are Nearing Extinction -https://time.com/5736789/small-american-farmers-debt-crisis-extinction/
130.
Statistical Evaluation of agricultural development in Asian countries – http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/icas/papers/P020071017429375003907.pdf
131.
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/ Access Date: October 26, 2020, 12:35 AM
132.
Selected Charts from Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, February 2020 – https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=96956
133.
Quiet Epidemic of Suicide Claims France’s Farmers – https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/europe/france-farm-suicide.html
134.
A French Farmer Commits Suicide Every 2 Days, Study Says – https://www.huffpost.com/entry/french-farmer-suicide-study_n_4085319
135.
Farmers are committing suicide as drought in southern Africa reaches crisis levels – https://nypost.com/2019/11/21/farmers-are-committing-suicide-as-drought-in-southern-africa-reaches-crisis-levels/
136.
Quiet Epidemic of Suicide Claims France’s Farmers – https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/europe/france-farm-suicide.html
137.
Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Among Farmers: The HUNT Study, Norway – https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1059924X.2015.1106375
138.
Suicide and accidental death in Australia’s rural farming communities: a review of the literature – https://www.rrh.org.au/journal/article/2517
139.
How digital innovation is transforming agriculture: Lessons from India – https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/how-digital-innovation-is-transforming-agriculture-lessons-from-india
140.
Secret anguish of the French farmer – https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-economy-agriculture-secret-anguish-of-the-french-farmer/
141.
In 2020 Asia will have the world’s largest GDP. Here’s what that means – https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/asia-economic-growth/#:~:text=In%202020%20Asia’s%20GDP%20will,class%20entering%20the%20global%20economy.
142.
Asia and Pacific Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition – http://www.fao.org/3/ca7062en/ca7062en.pdf
143.
Agriculture’s Connected future: How technology can yield new growth – https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/agricultures-connected-future-how-technology-can-yield-new-growth
144.
As farmers go, so goes the nation How did agriculture help the US recover from the Great Depression in the spring of 1933? – https://www.aeaweb.org/research/farmer-recovery-great-depression

References

World Bank: Agriculture and Food. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview (2020, September). Accessed 22 Sept 2020
Goedde, L., Horii, M., Sanghvi, S.: Global agriculture’s many opportunities. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Private%20Equity%20and%20Principal%20Investors/Our%20Insights/Global%20agricultures%20many%20opportunities/Global%20agricultures%20many%20opportunities.ashx (2015). Accessed 22 Nov 2020
Aririahu, C.: Top Seven Countries That Developed With Agriculture. https://www.afterschoolafrica.com/47413/top-seven-countries-that-developed-with-agriculture/ (2020, Apr 8). Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Kassel, K., Martin, A.: Ag and Food Sectors and the Economy. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/ (2020, December 16). Accessed 24 Dec 2020
Zahniser, S.: What is agriculture’s share of the overall U.S. economy? https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58270 (2020, October 15). Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Wirtz, C.: Agriculture, forestry and fishery statistics 2018 Edition, eurostat. ISBN 978-92-79-94758-2 ISSN 1977-2262, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/9455154/KS-FK-18-001-EN-N.pdf/a9ddd7db-c40c-48c9-8ed5-a8a90f4faa3f (2018, November)
Google Scholar
Bhatia, V.K., Rai, S.C.: Statistical Evaluation of Agricultural Development in Asian Countries, http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/icas/papers/P020071017429375003907.pdf (2020). Accessed 18 Sept 2020
Yao, X.: Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector in Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Bank, ISBN 978-971-561-827-4 (2009)
Google Scholar
Parikh, A.: An econometric model of the agricultural sector of the Indian economy. J. Policy Model. 4(3), 395–411 (1982) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0161893882900278?via%3Dihub
Article Google Scholar
Mzali, S.: Agriculture in Africa 2019: Special Report, https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/blog/souhir-mzali/focus-reports/agriculture-africa-2019-special-report (2019, 27 Jun). Access 18 Sept 2020
Cornock, O.: The Report Africa 2019. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/sites/default/files/blog/specialreports/949525/africa_2019_special_report.pdf (2019). Accessed 18 Sept 2020
Gurría, A., da Silva, J.G.: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018–2027 – Special focus: Middle East and North Africa, ISBN 978-92-64-06203-0 (PDF), http://www.fao.org/3/i9166en/I9166EN.PDF (2018)
OECD/FAO: Latin American Agriculture: Prospects and Challenges, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019–2028, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b2b742eb-en (2019)
Castañeda, A., Doan, D., Newhouse, D., Nguyen, M.C., Uematsu, H., Azevedo, J.P.: Policy Research Working Paper 7844 – WPS7844 – Who Are the Poor in the Developing World, October 2016, World Bank Group, Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report 2016: Taking on Inequality, http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/187011475416542282/pdf/WPS7844.pdf (2016, October)
Rao, D.R., Satyanarayan, K.: Small Farmers Make Big Contributions: Dairy Production in India. https://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=23184 (2017, February 7). Accessed 18 Sept 2019
Prahalad, C.K., Hart, S.L.: Strategies for the Bottom of the Pyramid: Creating Sustainable Development. http://pdf.wri.org/2001summit_hartarticle.pdf (1999, August). Accessed 22 Nov 2019
Eurostat: Small and large farms in the EU – statistics from the farm structure survey. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/54736.pdf (2018, Sept 28). Accessed 15 Nov 2019
Widmar, D.: China’s Acreage Gap. https://aei.ag/2018/10/01/chinas-acreage-gap/ (2018, October 1). Accessed 15 Nov 2019
Taneja, M., Jalodia, N., Byabazaire, J., Davy, A., Olariu, C.: SmartHerd management: A microservices-based fog computing–assisted IoT platform towards data-driven smart dairy farming. https://doi.org/10.1002/spe.2704 (2019, 16 May). Accessed 6 Aug 2019
Dynan, K., Sheiner, L.: GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-being. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WP43-8.23.18.pdf (2018, August 24). Accessed 10 Dec 2019
Behere, P.B., Bhise, M.C.: Farmers’ suicide: Across culture. Indian J. Psych. 51(4), 242–243 (2009). https://doi.org/10.4103/0019-5545.58286
Article Google Scholar
Santacoloma, P., Suárez, R., Riveros, H.: Strengthening agribusiness linkages with small-scale farmers – Case studies in Latin America and the Caribbean. http://www.fao.org/3/y6001e/y6001e00.htm#Contents (2005). Accessed 7 Mar 2018
Just, R.E.: Mathematical Models In Economics. Vol. II, Mathematical Modeling in Agricultural Economics, http://www.eolss.net/sample-chapters/c02/E6-154-12-00.pdf (2020). Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Account. https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-12/All-Chapters.pdf (2019, November). Accessed 10 Dec 2020
Richardson, A., van Florenstein Mulder, T., Vehbi, T.: Nowcasting New Zealand GDP Using Machine Learning Algorithms, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) Working Paper 47/2018. https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2018-09/47_2018_richardson_mulder_vehbi.pdf (2018, September). Accessed 14 Nov 2020
Rajkumar, V.: Predicting Surprises to GDP: A Comparison of Econometric and Machine Learning Techniques. https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/109649/987002546-MIT.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (2017, February). Accessed 18 Sept 2020
Iyetomi, H., et al.: Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Cycles in U.S. Sci. Rep. 10(1), 8420 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65002-3
Article Google Scholar
Peixeiro, M.: The Complete Guide to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. https://towardsdatascience.com/the-complete-guide-to-time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-70d476bfe775 (2019, Aug 7). Accessed 2 May 2020
NIST/SEMATECH: e-Handbook of Statistical Methods. http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/ (2012, April). Accessed 7 Feb 2019
Brownlee, J.: How to Check if Time Series Data is Stationary with Python. https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-data-stationary-python/ (2016, December 30; Last Updated on 2020, August 15) Accessed 18 Sept 2020
Camp, K.M.: The relationship between crude oil prices and export prices of major agricultural commodities. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-8/the-relationship-between-crude-oil-and-export-prices-of-major-agricultural-commodities.htm?view_full (2019, April 11). Accessed 25 Dec 2020
van der Mensbrugghe, D., Osorio-Rodarte, I., Burns, A., Baffes, J.: Macroeconomic Environment, Commodity Markets: A Longer Term Outlook – Expert Meeting on How to feed the World in 2050. http://www.fao.org/3/a-ak967e.pdf (2020). Accessed 1 Dec 2020
Kapusuzoglu, A., Ulusoy, M.K.: The interactions between agricultural commodity and oil prices: An empirical analysis. Agric. Econ Czech. 61(9), 410–421 (2015). https://doi.org/10.17221/231/2014-AGRICECON
Article Google Scholar
Inamdar, N.: Farm bills: Are India’s new reforms a ‘death warrant’ for farmers? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54233080 (2020, September 23). Accessed 2 Dec 2020
Mark, A.: McMinimy, The 2018 Farm Bill (P.L. 115-334): Summary and Side-by-Side Comparison. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45525 (2019, February 22). Accessed July 2020
Mcleod, L., Mcgrath, C.: China Announces 2020 Wheat Minimum Support Price at 2019 Level, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=China%20Announces%202020%20Wheat%20Minimum%20Support%20Price%20at%202019%20Level_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_12-03-2019 (2019, December 6). Accessed 10 Dec 2020
McCarthy, N.: U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Reach Eight-Year High [Infographic]. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/02/10/us-farm-bankruptcies-reach-eight-year-high-infographic/?sh=77b2189f7de0 (2020, Feb 10). Accessed 16 May 2020
Root, A.: There Is Turmoil in Agriculture. Here’s What Investors Need to Know. https://www.barrons.com/articles/agriculture-farmers-investors-china-trade-latin-america-brazil-argentina-tyson-corteva-fmc-wasde-report-51566336014 (2019, Aug. 21). Accessed June 2020
Heeb, G.: As small U.S. farms face crisis, Trump’s trade aid flowed to corporations. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/as-small-us-farms-face-crisis-trumps-trade-aid-flowed-to-corporations.html (2020, Sept 2; Updated 2020, Sept 3). Accessed Dec 2020
Newman, J.: More Farmers Declare Bankruptcy Despite Record Levels of Federal Aid. https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-farmers-declare-bankruptcy-despite-record-levels-of-federal-aid-11596706201 (2020, Aug. 6). Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Kinskey, I., Oswald, G., McCann, C., Finch, T., Tanaydin, A.: Improvements to Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods and Novel Features. SMU Data Sci. Rev. 1(4) (2018) Article 3. Available at https://scholar.smu.edu/datasciencereview/vol1/iss4/3
Amadeo, K., Barnier, B.: Components of GDP Explained, https://www.thebalance.com/components-of-gdp-explanation-formula-and-chart-3306015#:~:text=1.-,Personal%20Consumption%20Expenditures,figures%20reported%20are%20real%20GDP (2020, June 26). Accessed 20 Dec 2020
Dupor, B.: Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession, Economic Synopses, No. 16. https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2019.16 (2019)
Higgins, P.: Nowcasting GDP growth, https://macroblog.typepad.com/files/111020CurrentQuarterGDPTrackingDescription.pdf (2020, November 10). Accessed 22 Nov 2020
Benmelech, E., Meisenzahl, R.R., Ramcharan, R.: Why Did Car Sales Drop So Dramatically During the Financial Crisis? https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/was-the-government-bailout-of-car-financers-necessary (2016, APR 4) Accessed 14 Nov 2020
Ahmed, T.: What the Coronavirus means for car sales. https://datiuminsights.com.au/what-the-coronavirus-means-for-car-sales/ (2020, March 12). Accessed 10 Dec 2020
Rajkumar, V.: Predicting surprises to GDP: a comparison of econometric and machine learning techniques. https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/109649 (2017). Accessed 18 Sept2020
Tkacz, G., Hu, S.: Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks – Working Paper 99-3/Document de travail 99-3 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp99-3.pdf (2010, May). ISSN 1192-5434, ISBN 0-662-27537-3. Accessed 7 Mar 2020
Qin, D., Cagas, M.A., Ducanes, G., Magtibay-Ramos, N., Quising, P.: Forecasting Inflation And Gdp Growth: Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method Versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMS). https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29861/tn-18-forecasting-inflation-gdp-growth.pdf (2006, July). Access 25 Mar 2020
Rana, J.: Predicting Real GDP Growth How well do economic leading indicators predict the direction of real GDP growth? https://towardsdatascience.com/predicting-real-gdp-growth-85f34fdca97a (2020, May 21). Accessed 7 Oct 2020
Bunge, J.: On America’s Farms, Worries About Regulation, Hope for Trade Deals Under Biden, https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-americas-farms-worries-about-regulation-hope-for-trade-deals-under-biden-11604917800?page=1 (2020, Nov. 9). Accessed 10 Dec 2020
Semuels, A.: They’re Trying to Wipe Us Off the Map. Small American Farmers Are Nearing Extinction, https://time.com/5736789/small-american-farmers-debt-crisis-extinction/ (2019, November 27). Accessed 20 Aug 2020
Roser, M.: Employment in Agriculture. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture [Online Resource] (2013)
Kassel, K., Martin, A.: Selected Charts from Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, February 2020. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=96956 (2020, February). Accessed 18 Sept 2020
Michalopoulos, S.: One French farmer commits suicide every two days, survey says https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/one-french-farmer-commits-suicide-every-two-days-survey-says/ (2018, Oct 16). Accessed 10 Mar 2019

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Computer Engineering, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA
Chandrasekar Vuppalapati

Authors

Chandrasekar Vuppalapati
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chandrasekar Vuppalapati .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Vuppalapati, C. (2021). Agricultural Economy and ML Models. In: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Agricultural Economics. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 314. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77485-1_3

Download citation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77485-1_3
Published: 05 October 2021
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-77484-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-77485-1
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics