File:Ultimatereserveoilprojections.gif

English: World Oil production - history and projections

Projections are based on different publicly offered world ultimate reserve estimates, projecting current 2% growth smoothly into a 5% decline curve by linear interpolation. The transition period is determined to reach the expected ultimate reserves over the long term.

Campbell may be considered a pessimist, discounting the idea that higher prices will increase available reserves or production. The USGS as optimists with their 5%-confidence curve higher than most all other estimates and their 50%-confidence curve based on averaging their 95%-confidence low curve and 5%-confidence high curve. I acccept Harper's estimate with a 2015 peak as a nice middle between Campbell and the USGS 50%.

This graph does not consider political and technical limitations on oil production, but simply assumes the less oil that's left, the slower it will be extracted. A 5% annual decline curve (having 5% less oil available next year as this year) would be a tough economic problem.

This is NOT the graph peak oil advocates want you to see, but probably also NOT the graph that Cornucopians are interested in promoting either.

My intent is to suggest that whatever the ultimate reserves are, our era of exponential growth in oil production is ending and we're heading into an unknown age of higher energy prices and likely economic contraction.